Il Primo Ministro greco Lucas Papademos riceve l'approvazione del governo su tagli al bilancio che corrispondono al 7% del Pil nei prossimi tre anni e su una ristrutturazione finalizzata a ridurre di €100 mld gli oltre €200 mld di debito detenuto dai creditori privati, atteso il voto del parlamento • Standard & Poor's declassa il merito creditizio di 34 banche italiane tra cui UniCredit a BBB+ da A, Intesa Sanpaolo a BBB+ da A e Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena a BBB da BBB+, S&P anticipa "una redditività decisamente debole per le banche italiane nei prossimi anni" • La produzione industriale italiana aumenta a dicembre +1,4% da novembre +0,3%, oltre le stime degli economisti +0,5%, anche se i dati del quarto trimestre -2,1% suggeriscono che la terza economia della zona euro è entrata nella seconda recessione dal 2009 • I Btp decennali salgono per la quinta settimana consecutiva, il periodo di recupero più lungo in oltre cinque anni, la prossima settimana il Tesoro vende €4 mld di buoni al 6% con scadenza 2014 • L'euro cala dal massimo di due mesi contro il dollaro, il mercato azionario europeo cala dal massimo di sei settimane e l'azionario Usa registra la prima settimana di perdite del 2012 dopo che i ministri delle finanze europee non hanno concesso il pacchetto di aiuto necessario a prevenire il collasso economico della Grecia

mercoledì 5 settembre 2012

Market Comment - September 5

(Marco Bonelli) Believe it of not - the investment style of the 21st century!

Global macro-economic data are between a stage of continued deterioration or "stabilization" in contraction territory and don't show any convincing signs of improvement. Yesterday's Manufacturing PMI for August represented another perfect example and sent another reminder to all hopefuls that the Fed will certainly step in to support the new investment style of cautiously buying into positive data but really loading the boat into negative data because stimulus will make anything negative double positive in a short period of time.


FDX issued a profit warning for Q3, blaming China, Europe and an overall slow economic environment. Could this be called the launch of the pre-announcement season for the current quarter? As the Q2 reporting season wound down, earnings estimates revisions for Q3 slowed down quite a bit over the last two weeks. Although estimates saw a small "adjustment" to the upside, earnings growth for Q3 is still expected be negative 1.7% overall and negative 4.8% ex financials. With new profit warnings coming in, analysts will have a chance to further adjust their Q3 numbers and -more importantly- seriously start working on their models for Q4 as a positive 10.9% (positive 7.7% ex financials) still represents the leftovers from an overly positive outlook back in Q1 and the belief that everything will improve in the second half of 2012.

Commenting on some developments in the macro and micro economic space is no longer really important because a golden-framed invitation to a September 12th technology event in San Francisco and unlimited sterilized bond purchases by the ECB will address all uncertainties and provide plenty of reason to further load the boat and embrace the investment style of the 21st century.

Although the Dow Jones and SPX once again defended their psychological support levels of 13000 and 1400, given the fact that this summer rally and each intraday rebound has been built on highly questionable and exaggerated hopes and little facts and taking into account possible (or likely?) disappointments from the ECB and/or Fed, profit-taking and reducing risk exposure might prove to be a successful investment decision even if it contradicts the new investment style!


Trade well.


(Marco Bonelli is the Managing Director of International for CL King & Associates in New York. The opinions expressed are his own.)

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