Il Primo Ministro greco Lucas Papademos riceve l'approvazione del governo su tagli al bilancio che corrispondono al 7% del Pil nei prossimi tre anni e su una ristrutturazione finalizzata a ridurre di €100 mld gli oltre €200 mld di debito detenuto dai creditori privati, atteso il voto del parlamento • Standard & Poor's declassa il merito creditizio di 34 banche italiane tra cui UniCredit a BBB+ da A, Intesa Sanpaolo a BBB+ da A e Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena a BBB da BBB+, S&P anticipa "una redditività decisamente debole per le banche italiane nei prossimi anni" • La produzione industriale italiana aumenta a dicembre +1,4% da novembre +0,3%, oltre le stime degli economisti +0,5%, anche se i dati del quarto trimestre -2,1% suggeriscono che la terza economia della zona euro è entrata nella seconda recessione dal 2009 • I Btp decennali salgono per la quinta settimana consecutiva, il periodo di recupero più lungo in oltre cinque anni, la prossima settimana il Tesoro vende €4 mld di buoni al 6% con scadenza 2014 • L'euro cala dal massimo di due mesi contro il dollaro, il mercato azionario europeo cala dal massimo di sei settimane e l'azionario Usa registra la prima settimana di perdite del 2012 dopo che i ministri delle finanze europee non hanno concesso il pacchetto di aiuto necessario a prevenire il collasso economico della Grecia

mercoledì 3 ottobre 2012

Market Comment - October 3

(Marco Bonelli) "Wait and see" gets stretched again...

After a volatile six weeks between end of June and end of July, the SPX literally moved from 1350 to 1450 in three days with long consolidation periods in between. The last 2 ½ weeks have been once again one of those periods, defined by positives and negatives in regard of QE3 and good and bad macro-economic news. In terms of the latter, the mostly better than expected U.S. economic data (let's only list the durable good orders for August as a clear disappointment as the weak Chicago PMI for September apparently only caught up with the performance of all other related indexes and basically all manufacturing surveys, including the National ISM Manufacturing Index stabilized in the past month) got diluted by another round of surprisingly weak data out of Europe and China that rightly put a lot of uncertainty on the global economic recovery. Although this wait-and-see stance with many sessions showing early gains evaporate over the rest of the session and early losses cut by the end of the day, becomes quite frustrating, the consolidation at high level so far has to be seen as positive and healthy!

The ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Index for September as well as the variety of data from the labor market give investors a first view of economic activity at the end of another disappointing quarter, going into Q4 and also a view through the glasses of QE3 - and the numbers don't look bad (not great either!). Unless Friday's payroll data for September shows an unexpected disappointment, the latest macro data at least confirms the slow-growth status of the U.S. economy and, probably even more important, shows U.S economic activity outperforming many part of the world, which makes it relatively attractive for global investors. And if there was any doubt that recent better than expected economic data might discourage the Fed from following through or getting more aggressive in their latest round of QE, the Fed Chairman once again emphasized that monetary policy will remain ultra-easy long after the economy shows signs of a real recovery.

The slightly annoying wait-and-see situation also applies to the even more annoying chicken game of when Spain will request a full bail-out. A few of the more dramatic trading session of the past few days was result of multiple speculation of an imminent request, which usually got rejected by the Prime Minister who is apparently busier securing his own future than the one of his country. As it is only a matter of time, when even the government realizes that the country needs a bail-out, it will be interesting how securities markets will react once the ECB starts its own round of asset purchases and shifts the money-printing machine into overdrive.

Back to the economic front: recent economic data, the perception of a recovery in the housing market, record auto sales and a positive outlook for the holiday shopping season may give investors a reason to become even short-term slightly more optimistic. The missing part will be earnings: A few "not as bad as feared" or even better than expected Q3 earnings could give stocks another short-term boost. The emphasis is on short-term! Market participants in general continue to be highly skeptical with probably the majority still expecting a short-term pull-back. Given the described fundamental background, negative sentiment transferring into hope and optimism could easily give stocks an unexpected short-term boost and lead the SPX towards the 1550 level - so it might be worth waiting and seeing...

Trade well.

(Marco Bonelli is the Managing Director of International for CL King & Associates in New York. The opinions expressed are his own.)

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